THE ALGORITHM
How the Score Works
Every opportunity receives a score from 0 to 100. Here is exactly how it is calculated.
Catalyst Score — up to 30 points
Based on the type and strength of the primary event. An FDA approval scores near the maximum. A routine press release scores lower. The model distinguishes between 30 plus event categories.
Novelty Score — up to 20 points
Is this a new development or a repeat signal already priced in? The first occurrence of a catalyst type for a given company receives full novelty points.
Urgency Score — up to 15 points
How recent is the filing or announcement? Scores decay over time so stale signals fall off your feed automatically. A filing from this morning scores higher than one from three days ago.
Conviction Score — up to 15 points
How many independent sources confirm this signal? When a press release, an SEC filing, and a news wire all point to the same event, the conviction score rises. Single source signals are penalised.
Asymmetric Upside — up to 10 points
Does the opportunity have limited downside and large potential upside? Assessed by company size, sector, and the nature of the catalyst. A small cap biotech with an FDA catalyst has high asymmetric upside.
Awareness Gap — up to 10 points
How underreported is this event? Companies with lower analyst coverage and fewer institutional holders score higher here. This is where the real edge lies.